Estimate your real chance of winning an IPO lottery in Nepal — and understand why applying for more than the minimum units usually doesn't help your first-round odds.
You won't know the real applicant count until the IPO closes — check the issue manager's past IPOs or financial news for a rough estimate. Heavily hyped IPOs in Nepal have drawn anywhere from under 100,000 to well over 1 million applicants.
When an IPO is oversubscribed, CDSC runs a computerised lottery under SEBON's rules. In the first round, every valid applicant is guaranteed either the minimum allotment (10 units for a Fixed Price IPO, 50 for Book Building) or nothing — there's no partial or proportional allotment based on how many extra units you applied for. If shares remain after the first round, a second lottery runs among applicants who applied for more than the minimum, but second-round numbers vary too much by IPO to model reliably here — treat this calculator as your realistic first-round odds, which is what the vast majority of retail applicants actually experience.
This is an estimate based on published SEBON allotment rules, not a guarantee — the real draw is random, and your estimated applicant count is just that, an estimate.
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