Nepal’s 2026 Hydropower Export Agreements with India Under Review: What We Know So Far

Negotiations between Nepal and India over new power purchase agreements (PPAs) for hydropower exports have moved into a formal review phase, but concrete numbers remain under wraps. A Ratopati report published on 13 April 2026 (accessed 26 August 2026) outlines the latest round of talks, noting that both sides have agreed to re‑examine the terms of existing and proposed PPAs before any final sign‑off. The article was confirmed live on the Ratopati site on 26 August 2026 (Ratopati, 13 Apr 2026).

Why no final capacity or revenue figures have been released

The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) maintains a Cross‑Border Trade Updates page that was last refreshed in July 2026. That page explicitly states that export capacity allocations and tariff details are "subject to ongoing bilateral review" and will be published only after the review concludes (NEA Cross‑Border Trade Updates, last updated July 2026). Likewise, the Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation’s FAQ section, accessed in August 2026, confirms that "finalised PPA parameters, including volume and price, are not yet public" (MoEWRI FAQ, accessed Aug 2026). Both sources make clear that the review is still in a consultative stage, so any numbers circulating in the media are speculative.

Anticipated capacity range under discussion

According to the Ratopati article, stakeholder interviews and draft term sheets suggest a negotiating band of roughly 800 MW to 1,200 MW of new export capacity. The lower end reflects projects that have already secured generation licences but await transmission upgrades, while the upper end assumes accelerated clearance of a few large‑scale schemes currently in the pipeline. No official document has locked in a specific figure, and the range may shift as technical studies on cross‑border grid stability are completed.

Potential revenue scenarios under different tariff assumptions

Historical cross‑border PPAs between Nepal and India have typically settled in the INR 4–5 per kWh range, based on publicly reported rates from earlier agreements. If the new contracts follow that pattern, a 1,000 MW export profile operating at a 90 % capacity factor would generate roughly 7.9 TWh annually, translating to an estimated INR 35–40 billion per year. A more optimistic tariff — say INR 6 per kWh, which some industry observers have floated in recent bilateral discussions — would push the annual revenue toward INR 47–48 billion. These back‑of‑the‑envelope calculations are illustrative only; actual earnings will depend on the final agreed tariff, seasonal generation profiles, and any transmission loss adjustments. Note: All revenue figures are quoted in nominal Indian rupees (INR) and have not been converted to Nepalese rupees (NPR) or US dollars for local readers.

What comes next

Both governments have signaled that a joint technical committee will finalize the revised PPA framework by the end of Nepal's fiscal year — that is, mid‑July 2027. Until then, developers, investors, and policymakers should treat any capacity or revenue projection as provisional. Nepaldatabase.com has not previously published an article that focuses specifically on the 2026 PPA review, so this piece aims to fill that gap with the information available as of late August 2026.